Intelligent Market Seeding (AI & External Oracle)

Issue #92 | State: OPEN | Created: 2026-01-26T07:46:33Z

Labels: enhancement

Updated: 2026-02-02T11:28:20Z | Closed: N/A

Context Currently, new markets are initialized with 50/50 probability. For markets with Strong Consensus (e.g., Korea vs Brazil soccer match), the real probability might be skewed (e.g., 1% vs 99%). If we seed liquidity at 50/50 (/opt/homebrew/bin/zsh.50 each), arbitrageurs will immediately buy the 'cheap' favorite, causing financial loss to the Platform (which funds the initial liquidity).

Proposed Solution Implement an Intelligent Seeding Mechanism to determine fair initial prices before creating the market.

1. AI Estimation Use an LLM (Claude/GPT) to analyze the question key stats.

• Input: 'Will Samsung stock rise in Q3?'
• Output: 'Probability ~40% (Bearish trend)' -> Seed Yes @ /opt/homebrew/bin/zsh.40, No @ /opt/homebrew/bin/zsh.60.

2. External Reference (Polymarket/Betfair) Check if the same market exists on major platforms and copy their probability.

• Check Polymarket API for 'World Cup Winner'.
• Use their current trading price as our starting price.

Tasks

• Research: Polymarket/Kalshi API availability for price integration.
• Prototype: Simple AI prompt to return probability (0.0-1.0) for a given text question.
• Admin Feature: When creating a market, show 'Suggested Probability' button that pre-fills the odds.
• Risk Management: Alert if Platform Liquidity is being drained too quickly on a specific side (Bad pricing indicator).

Comments

@linked0 — 2026-02-02T11:28:20Z

Relates to #57